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And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. (Go to the bottom of the page. 2016 Election (1135) Website Updates Paused It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Telegram Telegram Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. It gets a lot more interesting. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) (Sorry, not sorry.) Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. hide caption. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? 5. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It almost became religious.". Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? 12. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Contributors wanted Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Watauga has gone for. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Free and open-source. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". . This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. 7. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Do you know this baby? Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Jeff. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. We believe this was a mistake. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. 2020 Election (1210) Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. What are your thoughts on this article? Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? They're just facts about the vote. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Enter Donald Trump. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! 108,000 people. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. All Rights Reserved. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. . Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. 11. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Subscribe to breaking updates This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Have you looked at the results of these counties? These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. This county voted with the popular vote each time. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. 3. The matters that way on their minds are real. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . 2. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. But it's also not unprecedented. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. The divisions were everywhere. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Trump won the other 18 counties. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. 10. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). (subject to censorship). Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". That's 14 in a row. Yes, another Hillsborough! Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Just how big is it? Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. 03:30. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin).

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2016 bellwether counties

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